By Richard Lee
In the race for New York governor, Kathy Hochul has a lead of 17 percentage point over Lee Zeldin in the latest Siena College Research Institute poll.
With just over five weeks to go before Election Day, 17 points is a formidable advantage, but it is smaller than the lead Andrew Cuomo held over Marc Molinaro at this point in the 2018 gubernatorial campaign.
In September 2018, a Siena poll showed Cuomo with an 18-point lead over Molinaro. Across demographics, Cuomo’s numbers are slightly better than Hochul’s in most categories, accounting for some reasons why he held a larger overall lead among voters.
But Cuomo fared much better with suburban voters than Hochul. He led Molinaro by a margin of 58% to 36%. Hochul also is ahead of her opponent with suburban voters, but by a much smaller margin of 50% to 45%.
Cuomo also had much better numbers among Black and Latino voters. He was ahead of Molinaro by margins of 89% to 6% with Black voters and 86% to 10% with Latinos. Hochul has leads of 80% to 12% with Blacks and 58% to 33% with Latinos.
The numbers make for some interesting comparisons, but we should not read too much into them. Political veterans will tell you that only one poll matters — and that is the one that takes place on Election Day.
Richard Lee, executive director of the Jandoli Institute, covered politics and government as a reporter and later served as Deputy Director of Communication for two New Jersey governors. Click here to read more of Lee’s On the Road to Albany columns, and follow the Jandoli Institute on Twitter and Facebook.
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