With President Biden deciding not to seek re-election there is a great deal of commentary that can be summed up with the phrases such as “We are in uncharted waters” and “at a historic moment.”
In many ways, this is true. However, as I have explored in essays for the Jandoli Institute here and here (in collaboration with my colleagues as part of the Hybrid Journalism project), history isn’t necessarily about an exact match.
Is there another historical example of an aging president stepping aside during the campaign to hand the baton to his vice president, who happens to be a woman of color? Is there another example of a candidate like her opponent who is a former reality-TV star, former president, and a convicted felon? No.
Perhaps metaphors of historic moments and unchartered waters really mean that we don’t know what is going to happen. At this moment, it seems likely that Harris will secure the nomination. It also seems that Biden’s legacy is getting burnished. But presidential legacies are tricky things, and much of that will depend on what happens next.
However, we can turn to other periods in our history when our creaking political system dealt with rapid changes. Off the top of my head, other presidential elections in uncertain times with shifting norms could include 1800, 1860, 1896, 1912, 1920, 1932, 1960, 1968, 1980, 2008, 2016 (okay, you get the point). Each of these elections contained something that was new and game-changing.
We have also had other presidents whose health and age have proven an issue. What is interesting about Biden is that his decline due to age took place in public, especially with the debate, during a time when aging politicians and generational tension simmered.
Is all this to say that the events of the past few weeks are inconsequential? No, far from it. Those past elections I listed were deeply consequential. It is rather to say that the status quo of history is not the status quo. People entered into these past elections not knowing what the future would bring, and that might be an historical lesson worth considering.
Jandoli Institute 