I agree with my colleague Pauline Hoffmann that Biden should not have put himself forward as a candidate in 2024. Back in 2020, the messaging, while somewhat muddled, seemed to be that Biden was the consensus candidate for that unique moment, but that the Dems would be searching for a different candidate in 2024. Even before the disastrous debate performance it was clear Biden couldn’t win – the debate sealed his political fate.

Given that Biden’s closest advisors would clearly have serious concerns about his ability to perform in a late-night debate, why did the campaign agree to it? In fact, why did they push Trump to debate? Were they hoping Trump would refuse and he called their bluff? Or, and this is purely speculation on my part, did they allow him to do it suspecting the worst and hoping – as it has come to pass – this would convince Biden to step down? I don’t think the answers to these questions are particularly relevant to events moving forward, but still have to wonder.

Moving forward, the VP pick will be crucial. I don’t know how much Harris resonates with Gen Z and millennials or folks in the purple swing states. If Democrats can find someone who could do both, this would help the ticket immensely. Someone who could handle JD Vance in a VP debate and call into question his hillbilly credentials. Arizona senator Mark Kelly’s name has come up frequently as a possibility. I think this would be a mistake for many reasons. Particularly because Kelly has no executive experience, and he was one of only three Democratic senators to vote against the PRO (Protecting the Right to Organize) Act bill – clearly a liability in getting labor on board.

I sadly have to agree with Dr. Hoffmann’s concerns about racist and particularly sexist dog whistles directed toward the Harris campaign (and not just from the Trump campaign). However, the current stir over Vance’s “childless cat lady” remark indicates overtly sexist statements may prove to be a liability for the Trump campaign. 

Hopefully, the Democrats can make this an issue-focused campaign and turn away from the corrosive identity politics of the Trump campaign. In particular, the Harris campaign messaging needs to focus on the economy, where at the moment the Trump campaign appears to have an edge. The Republican platform is very light on policy positions (though perhaps we can extrapolate from Project 2025, there is still plausible deniability for the Trump campaign). One position Trump has made explicit (though with very little details) is his plan to raise tariffs and lower corporate taxes. The Harris campaign should be explaining that this is going to hurt working and middle class people and likely cause increased inflation.

Back to main page on Biden’s withdrawal.