By Richard Lee

Forty-four percent. 

That’s the number that caught my attention in last week’s Siena poll on New York’s upcoming gubernatorial race. 

Forty-four percent of the voters polled answered “Don’t Know/No Opinion” in response to a question about Rep.  Elise Stefanik’s favorability. As Siena pollster Steven Greenberg said, the numbers showed she was “still largely unknown to more than two in five voters.”

Not exactly where a gubernatorial candidate wants to be less than a year from Election Day. With even less time before facing a primary challenge. 

Stefanik’s complicated history with Donald Trump probably had more to do with her decision to abruptly drop out of the race on Saturday. 

After all, her competitor for the GOP nomination has even poorer name recognition. A whopping 70 percent answered “Don’t Know/No Opinion” about Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman’s favorability.

Those numbers— 70 percent and 44 percent— may be more significant than who is going to challenge Democrat incumbent Kathy Hochul in November. (Hochul, as one would expect from an incumbent, has much higher name recognition. Only 16 percent answered “Don’t Know/No Opinion” about her favorability.)

If so few New York voters know Stefanik, who has been vocal in high profile congressional hearings, that comes as a bit of a surprise.

Ditto for Blakeman, who pulled off a stunning victory in 2021 by winning the county executive’s seat in Nassau County, which has 100,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans.

New York is a blue state, so political demographics may account for Stefanik and Blakeman’s low recommendation numbers. Geography also could be a factor. New York has a unique downstate/upstate dichotomy Downstate voters may not be familiar with a congresswoman who represents the most northern part of the state. And upstate voters may not have great interest in what goes on in the New York metropolitan area. 

Another reason could be that voters are just turned off by today’s politics. And that indeed would be a problem. 

Richard Lee, executive director of the Jandoli Institute, covered politics and government as a reporter and later served as Deputy Director of Communication for two New Jersey governors.

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