By Richard Lee

In early polling, Gov. Kathy Hochul holds a large lead over Rep. Elise Stefanik, her potential opponent in next year’s New York gubernatorial contest. A Nov.18 Siena Poll showed the incumbent governor with a 20-point lead, 52-32%, over Stefanik.  

Although Hochul hails from Western New York her support is strongest among New York City voters.

“Hochul has a 42-point lead in New York City but leads by only nine points in the downstate suburbs and a very narrow three points upstate,” Siena pollster Steven Greenberg said.

Here is a geographic breakdown of how Hochul fared in the Siena Poll. 

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Do you have a favorable opinion or an unfavorable opinion of Kathy Hochul?

• All NY Voters: 43%
• NYC Voters: 49%
• Suburban Voters: 41%
• Upstate Voters: 38%

if Kathy Hochul runs for re-election as Governor in 2026, as things stand now, would you vote to re-elect Hochul , or would you prefer someone else?

• All NY Voters: 42%
• NYC Voters: 49%
• Suburban Voters: 40%
• Upstate Voters: 35%

Do you approve or disapprove of the job that Kathy Hochul is doing as Governor?

• All NY Voters: 52%
• NYC Voters: 57%
• Suburban Voters: 39%
• Upstate Voters: 43%

If the 2026 general election for Governor was held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were Kathy Hochul and Elise Stefanik?

• All NY Voters: 52%
• NYC Voters: 62%
• Suburban Voters: 47%
• Upstate Voters: 44%

The poll was conducted from Nov. 10 to 12  among 802 New York State registered Voters: Results were broken down by several categories including regions, which included New York City, suburbs (Long Island and Westchester, Putnam, Rockland and Orange counties) and upstate, which included the rest of the state.

Richard Lee, executive director of the Jandoli Institute, covered politics and government as a reporter and later served as Deputy Director of Communication for two New Jersey governors.

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