By Richard Lee

In political debates, a candidate challenging an incumbent office-holder receives an immediate advantage the moment he or she steps on stage.

For the first time, the challenger appears as an equal to a sitting president, governor, mayor or other elected official. Voters realize this man or woman could very well be their next president, or governor, or mayor.

The challengers’ advantage is one of the reasons why incumbents often are reluctant to debate their challengers. They have little to gain and much to lose.

Sometimes, clever incumbents manage to turn the tables. In 2014, incumbent New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, a Democrat, declined to debate his Republican opponent, Rob Astorino, one-on-one, but he did take part in a debate that included Astorino and two third party candidates. Rather than appearing as an equal to Cuomo, Astorino was lumped in with fringe candidates who had little chance of winning the contest for governor.

In 2019, Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown employed a similar strategy. After losing to fellow Democrat India Walton in the primary election, Brown entered the campaign as a write-in candidate. He did not debate Walton one-on-one. Instead, two third-party candidates also took part in a mayoral debate, allowing Brown to draw a sharp distinction from the others on the stage.

Tonight, because a Democrat sits in the White House, there will be no incumbent among the eight GOP presidential candidates taking part in the first Republican debate for the 2024 election. Instead of an incumbent, the Republican Party does have a clear front runner in former President Donald Trump, who is nearly 40 percentage points ahead of his nearest rival, according to a national polling average compiled by FiveThirtyEight.  

Trump has chosen to skip the debate. Like an incumbent, he has little to gain by taking part in a debate with candidates who rank far below his numbers with GOP voters. It would be the equivalent of an adult choosing to sit at the kids table for a holiday meal.

But Trump is not content to just let his absence send a message; he plans to steal the spotlight. He has recorded an interview with former Fox News host Tucker Carlson that is expected to stream online at the same time as the GOP debate.

Regardless of how one feels about the former president, his strategy is clever, and it sends a signal: As the 2024 campaign kicks off, the road to the White House will be another wild ride.

Richard Lee, executive director of the Jandoli Institute, is a professor in the Jandoli School of Communication at St. Bonaventure University. He covered politics and government as a reporter and later served as Deputy Director of Communication for two New Jersey governors.

Categories: Jandoli Institute, Media, Politics, Richard Lee